Revolution at Chicago Fire, 9.25.11: MLS Supporters’ Shield Proposal, A Statistical Defense of Rajko Lekic, and More

The MLSsoccer.com recap article on New England’s 3-2 loss to the Chicago Fire on Sunday notes that the Revolution are “now all but mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.” A team that is 5-13-12 with four games to play should not simply be “all but mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.” It should be fighting to avoid relegation to a lower league. But of course teams aren’t relegated in U.S.-based sports leagues, and the MLS playoff format, in which 18 clubs vie for 10 spots, cheapens the very term “playoff team” and allows organizations as pathetic as these Revs to hold out hope well into September. That hope has mercifully been extinguished, and New England soccer fans can now turn their full attention to the EPL, La Liga, Serie A, etc.

While we’re on the subject of the MLS regular season: Is there a more meaningless hunk of sports hardware than the laughably named Supporters’ Shield, given each year to the MLS team with the best regular-season record? In most soccer leagues around the world, a team doesn’t just win a trophy for finishing the season atop the standings, it actually wins the league. Of course, most leagues don’t have playoffs.

I don’t propose doing away with the MLS playoffs, but league powers should truly reward the team that finishes the season with the most points. In my opinion, the Supporters’ Shield winner should be exempted from competing in all playoff games until the MLS finals. The Supporters’ Shield winner should be able sit and rest while all those many playoff teams battle it out for the right to play them in the championship game. That policy would keep teams like this year’s Galaxy, Sounders, and Real Salt Lake squads from resting their players in late September and October, and also keep fans everywhere interested in games involving teams that have already clinched playoff spots. It would also, of course, reward a team for performing consistently well all year long. As the playoff structure exists now, there’s little to be gained from winning the Supporters’ Shield; just ask last year’s Galaxy team, who finished atop the league but who lost to FC Dallas in the semi-finals. Of course, the Colorado Rapids barely slipped into the playoffs with 46 points (13 behind the Galaxy) and yet won the entire league.

But let’s move on to the Revolution match against Chicago, a rare 4:00 pm Sunday game and a rare second consecutive game in which the Revolution won the battle of possession. Of course, New England lost their last two matches (the first, you’ll remember, was against Portland) by a combined score of 6-2. That’s evidence that possession in itself is meaningless unless a team also plays good defense, creates chances to score, and capitalizes on those chances.

Speaking of possession, in another post, way back in July, I suggested that when Rajko Lekic is in the game, the Revolution are in effect always playing a man down. After all, he is almost always alone up top, and rarely is he involved in buildups or in trying to press the other team and regain possession when the other team has the ball. Since Lekic is injured and didn’t play against the Fire on Sunday, and since he was out for the second half of the Portland game (when the Revolution began to control the run of play), I thought I’d do a little digging to test out my hypothesis. If Lekic is in the game for the Revolution, what happens to the team’s time-of-possession numbers?

I don’t generally spend a lot of my free time poring over sports statistics, but I spent many hours yesterday gathering time-of-possession numbers, goals-scored and goals-conceded stats, etc., and placing that information on a spreadsheet. I’ve listed the most interesting statistics below. They apply to the 30 regular-season games the Revolution have played so far this year. I wouldn’t swear in a court of law that they’re 100% accurate, but then again I’m reasonably confident they are. I was surprised by what I found.

·      Goals scored per 90 minutes of play for Lekic: .31. The number is .20 if you take away his two penalty-kick goals. Those aren’t great numbers for a relatively well-paid striker, but read on.

·      Revs’ time-of-possession average for games in which Lekic did not play: 45%.

·      Revs’ time-of-possession average for games in which Lekic did play: 43%. So, I was right about the Revs holding the ball more without Lekic in the game, but then again the number went down by only 2%.

·      When the Revs win, their average time-of-possession percentage is: 43%.

·      When the Revs tie, their average time-of-possession percentage is: 42%.

·      When the Revs lose, their average time-of-possession percentage is: 45%. So, the Revs hold the ball more consistently when they lose than when they win, though again the numbers are close. (Their overall possession percentage per game for the season so far is 44%.)

·      Revs’ record, and winning percentage, without Lekic playing: 1-4-4, .259. (Note: When factoring the winning percentage, I counted a tie as 1/3 of a win, since a team is awarded one point for a tie and three points for a win.)

·      Revs’ record, and winning percentage, with Lekic playing: 4-9-8, .317. So, when Lekic plays (and he’s never been on the field for less than 45 minutes in any game in which he’s played this year), the Revs have a .058 better winning percentage than when he’s out of the lineup. (The Revs’ overall winning percentage this year so far is .300.)

·      The bottom line: Lekic may gripe and moan and jaw from time to time, even to his own teammates, but the numbers mostly back up his talk.

To return to the Chicago game on Sunday: The final 3-2 score line must strike the 5,000 or so people in the world who watched the game from beginning to end as bizarre. I know it does me. Chicago led 3-0 in this game from the 30^th minute to the 90^th. They got their first goal early, off an unforced giveaway by Benny Feilhaber in the midfield circle that led to a breakaway by Chicago and, ultimately, a penalty-kick goal for them. I argued last week about the importance of a good defense to a winning soccer team, but Feilhaber’s bad pass in the 4^th minute was a great example of how careless giveaways at midfield frequently lead to goals for the opposition.

Less than five minutes after Feilhaber’s gaffe, Shalrie Joseph couldn’t get control of a ball at midfield, and that too led to a quick Chicago counter. Speedy forward Dominic Oduro beat center backs Darrius Barnes and Franco Coria for Chicago’s second goal. The Fire’s third goal was—and you don’t hear this very often—the result of a lazy play by Matt Reis, who came way off his line and tried to clear an Oduro through ball. Reis kicked the ball completely without conviction, and Patrick Nyarko calmly blocked the kick with the bottom of his right cleat and then side-footed a shot into the open net.

The Revolution came on frustratingly late in this game. Kevin Alston, for instance, made a good attacking run and shot in the 75^th minute. Had that shot gone in, the Revs might have picked up a point. A tie would have seemed an impossible dream as late as the 89^th minute, but in the 90^th, Alston sailed a long cross into the box from the right wing. Chicago keeper Sean Johnson tried to catch the ball, but Milton Caraglio got in his way and the ball slipped out of Johnson’s hands and to the feet of Ryan Guy. Guy took an awkward shot with the outside of his foot, or maybe even his shin, but the ball sailed over and between two Chicago defenders and into the net. The Revs were down 3-1 with only 2 minutes of stoppage time left. It seemed like the archetypal useless goal.

But then New England scored again almost immediately, and there was nothing awkward about this one. Diego Fagundez, who came on in the 71^st minute, showed good skill by receiving a throw-in and using the inside of his right heel to flick a ball back to Caraglio, who then passed the ball squarely across the box to Guy. Guy beat the keeper with a good low shot to the near post.

After that, the Revs had only seconds left to tie. Shockingly, they might have pulled it off had Feilhaber’s cross from the left wing not sailed frustratingly out of reach of a sprinting Caraglio.

So while the Revs came on too late, at least they came on. I’d far rather watch that kind of effort than the kind the Revolution put forth relatively recently against the likes of Philadelphia, New York, and Houston—games in which they collapsed after promising starts. At the end of this one, the Fire wanted to get off the field and the Revolution wanted to keep playing. In this lost season, that’s at least mildly gratifying.

Revolution v. Chicago Fire, 6.18.11

Rajko Lekic finally had a killer game. We’ve seen that he’s a fiery player, ready to jaw and mix it up with virtually anyone who comes within his field of vision. He’s at his best, though, not when he’s waving his arms and screaming, but when he’s playing in a composed manner. And he was the picture of composure against Chicago.

Lekic’s most impressive play of this game came just before the final whistle. With the game tied 1-1 and deep into additional time, he stood in a crowd at the top of Chicago’s penalty box and managed to settle a long throw-in from Darrius Barnes. After the trap, Lekic juggled the ball three times, all while splitting two defenders and getting into position to fire a left-footed volley from more than twenty yards out. The shot just missed, wide right. It was a calmly and crisply delivered strike that wasted no motion. If it had gone in, the goal would have been a sublime ending for the Revolution, who badly needed a win.

Lekic cracked a similarly impressive volley in the 21^st minute off a chest trap, and seven minutes after that he one-timed a dangerous shot off a headed pass from Kevin Alston. After those impressive but fruitless attempts, it looked to be another night of frustration for Lekic, but he broke through early in the second half. Standing at the six in the 47^th minute, he calmly collected a low bouncing shot from Pat Phelan. Lekic appeared to be offside, but for once the flag stayed down for him. (Replays showed the no-call was a good one.) He turned and side-footed an accurate far-post shot past the keeper. Whatever one feels about his occasional theatrics, it would be hard even for Chicago defenders to deny that Lekic deserved a goal in this one.

Lekic probably would have had another goal against Chicago were it not for the stellar play of Fire goalkeeper Sean Johnson, who is only 22 and looks like he’s never had to run a razor over his baby face. He sure plays like a commanding veteran, though, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he moves on to bigger and better leagues before long. I’d be remiss not to add that Matt Reis had yet another excellent game in goal for the Revolution. He probably won’t get much credit for his play this year because of his team’s lousy record, but he does more than his share to keep New England in games. He also seems notably less inclined than most keepers to fly into flailing temper tantrums when his defenders have the temerity to allow opposing players to get off shots. In my book, that’s reason enough to pull for the guy.

In addition to Johnson, keep an eye out for Chicago’s Dominic Oduro, a 25-year-old striker from Ghana who is strong, fast, and big. He scored Chicago’s only goal, sprinting on to a well-weighted and perfectly timed long pass from fellow Ghanaian teammate Patrick Nyarko. Oduro got the ball in space and ran at a helpless Barnes, who could only retreat from Oduro sideways and hope to break up the play at the last second. He couldn’t, and Oduro side-footed a long, low shot past Reis just inside the far post. The Revolution don’t have anyone that strong and impressive, someone who can run at defenders and finish. Come to think of it, our national squad could use a few of those types as well.

And while we’re on the subject, what’s the deal with Ghana? They’re a nation of only 24 million according to Wikipedia, and they’ve eliminated the U.S. from the last two World Cups. And they should have beaten Uruguay to advance to the WC semis in 2010. I might have been really upset about that result had I not been in Vegas before the tourney and laid a $10 bet on Uruguay to win it all. They were a 150-1 shot that nearly paid off for me. There I was, ticket in hand, all set to take my family to Uruguay on vacation with my winnings if they lifted that golden, venous trophy. I had the odds makers sweating for once, but the long-shot ticket’s now in a landfill somewhere with almost all the rest of them. 

The Revolution have a new player in town named Ryan Guy. He came on for Chris Tierney in the 71^st minute and showed some good speed and footwork. He also saved the Revolution a point in the standings by clearing a hard Oduro header while covering the near post on a corner kick.

Revolution v. Toronto FC, 6.15.11

This is getting serious. The Revolution couldn’t do better than a 0-0 draw at home against a Toronto team that has won only two games this year. To say that the game was “at home” deserves some qualification, as the official attendance was a meager 6,680 and the stands looked as if they held considerably fewer customers than that. Game 7 of the Bruins/Canucks NHL final was being played concurrently, meaning that only the true Revolution faithful (or the deranged) were on hand for the soccer game.

A bit of a coincidence that two Boston sports teams were playing two Canada-based teams at the same time. Presumably the result of the soccer match did not excite the kind of rioting in Toronto that we saw in Vancouver. In fact, Vancouver authorities might have done well to show a replay of the Toronto v. Revolution game on big screens throughout the city to stupefy their rowdy populace. The game was that lame (apart from some excitement in and around stoppage time). By far the lustiest cheers of the night at Gillette—for the record, occurring at minutes 36, 72, and 83—were due to the Bruins scoring goals, not to actions seen on the soccer field.

But enough. As predicted, New England finally abandoned its 4-5-1 formation and started Kenny Mansally up front with Rajko Lekic. Obviously, Lekic managed to avoid finding the net yet again, but Nichol keeps staying with him. I’m still not sure if I like the guy or not myself. He seems to play hard, though he gets called offside a lot, complains to refs incessantly, and sometimes pulls up on his runs when sprinting for through balls. Worse than all that, he continues to occasionally bark at his teammates, as he did in the 71^st minute of this game after a cross from Mansally failed to find his right foot. Mansally did very well to get the cross off, as there was a defender draped all over him and the cross wouldn’t have occurred at all if not for Mansally’s hustle. Lekic’s pissy reaction reminded me strongly of certain NFL receivers who bark at their quarterbacks for not delivering perfect passes, never mind the 350-pound defensive tackles in the QBs’ faces. Still, it must be said that Lekic has a strong personality and an attitude, and those are no bad things for a striker to have. There must be some reason I’m drawn to him.

Don’t expect any such petulant outbursts from the Revolution’s Kevin Alston, who quietly leads the team in minutes played this season and who had a characteristically good game tonight, including a great run down the right side in the 58^th minute. After receiving a pass from Sainey Nyassi—who came on in the second half for Zak Boggs—Alston found himself trapped in front of the corner flag. He still somehow managed to juke the defender, dart a few yards up the end line, and deliver a dangerous cross to Lekic, who one-timed the ball wide of the post. Alston made a few more nice runs into the offensive third over the course of the game and broke up many Toronto offensive build-ups before they had a chance to really get going. He’s fast and reliable. The only egregious play I can recall him making came in the first minute of last year’s MLS all-star game, when he slowly played the ball back to his central defender. Man. U’s Federico Macheda intercepted the pass and buried the shot to get the rout going early.

I’m tempted to say that Nyassi and Mansally also had good games, and they did have their moments, but there’s no way around the fact that the Revolution failed to score and failed to create the kinds of opportunities that they did last week in New York. I thought that after losing their last four regular-season matches by one goal apiece, and after playing particularly well in New York, that the team was due to explode, or at least to beat Toronto 2-0. But that notion was just another example of the triumph of hope over experience.

Two final notes: The Revolution’s talented but glass-like Frenchmen—Ousmane Dabo and Didier Domi—were once again out due to injury. Also, it might be worth keeping an eye on Toronto’s Belgian defender Mikael Yourassowsky, not because of the quality of his play but because of the quality of his acting. In the 63^rd minute, Pat Phelan stepped on his heal from behind and received a yellow. Yourassowsky rolled around on the ground as if something were really wrong with him, prompting Revs’ play-by-play man Brad Feldman, normally a keen judge, to say something along the lines of, “He’s not faking it, this is serious.” I agreed—it looked bad. Phelan and Shalrie Joseph, however, felt that Yourassowsky was malingering and they gave him an earful. Yourassowsky had to leave the field, of course, but within seconds he was trotting back on without so much as a limp, validating the judgment of Phelan and Joseph and making the rest of us feel like dupes. Ten minutes later, A. J. Soares made a nice slide tackle on Yourassowsky and the latter went into his act again. No one was having any of it this time, however, including the ref, who booked him.

Revolution at San Jose Earthquakes, 5.21.11

Earthquakes’ striker Steven Lenhart is surmounted by what looks like a wig from a Greatest American Hero Halloween costume, circa 1982. His hair is an anachronism, a throwback to an era when a significant number of American males affected a bleached-blond man-perm. In our current day and age, Lenhart’s hairstyle is more radical, and certainly more rare, than Shalrie Joseph’s dreadlocks or Rajko Lekic’s among-the-thugs shaved head. Your first inclination might be to laugh off Lenhart, as if he emerged from a Chevy van sporting white shoes, a gold medallion, and a silk shirt open at the throat. That would be a mistake. Lenhart is a strong presence in the air and plays physical soccer that’s just this side of dirty.

Though he won’t receive formal credit on the score sheet, Lenhart was instrumental in producing the game’s first goal. It came in the 71^st minute off a perfect cross from Chris Wondolowski. Wondolowski ran down the right sideline and cut the ball back to his left foot, evading A.J. Soares, who I’m sorry to say made a lame attempt to block the cross. As the ball sailed into the center, Lenhart drew the attention of two Revolution defenders at the six. That freed a trailing Ellis McLoughlin, who headed in his first MLS goal.

Wondolowski and Lenhart give San Jose an enviable duo up front. Wondolowski looked particularly impressive against the Revolution. Revs defenders forced him to his left all night long and he was still able to make them pay on that cross to McLoughlin. He almost made them pay again in the 79^th minute with a quick left-footed strike that skidded just wide of the post. I was happy to see Wondolowski was named to the U.S. national team’s Gold Cup roster yesterday. Based on this year and last, he clearly deserves the chance. The announcement is a mixed blessing for San Jose, who will miss Wondolowski over the course of the tournament. But as the silk-shirted, gold-medallion-wearing Kurtis Blow once put it: these are the breaks.

The Revs have no counterpart to Wondolowski, who incidentally last year managed to lead MLS in scoring and avoid falling below the poverty line while collecting his $48,000 annual salary. But back to the Revolution, whose new $275,000-a-year striker Lekic has only one goal and zero assists in 531 minutes of play. He never threatened against San Jose. He did, however, get under the skin of numerous Earthquake players. Veteran Bobby Convey, who played left back and scored the game winner off a great free kick, received a yellow for unsporting behavior after shoving Lekic in the back. (Convey lost his composure when Lekic ran him into the sideline advertising boards.)

With the way Lekic talks and plays, often grabbing opposing players around the shoulder and neck area while challenging for the ball, he will likely draw many more cards this year. Unfortunately, as we saw when he argued with Sainey Nyassi a couple of weeks ago against Colorado, Lekic may also be in danger of routinely antagonizing his own teammates. He and Benny Feilhaber exchanged words in the 74^th minute of this game after Lekic was called offside following a Feilhaber through ball. Feilhaber had a point. He had held the ball as long as he could, waiting for Lekic to step onside, but Lekic never did. It was a wasted chance for the Revolution on a night in which they produced few of them.

This—failing to produce chances, let alone goals—of course represents a growing trend. The Revs have now failed to score in the run of play in four straight regular-season games. (Chris Tierney got the Revolution’s only goal off a free kick just outside the box in the 86^th minute.) This is not the kind of soccer that’s going to generate excitement for the team. I wasn’t surprised to read in Soccer America Daily today that so far this year the Revs have an average home attendance of only 10,892. That’s well below the current 2011 league average of 17,378. Only Columbus and San Jose have lower attendance numbers than New England.

Revolution v. Colorado Rapids, 5.7.11

Didier Domi didn’t play today due to injury, but when the game started I thought for a moment he’d snuck onto the field. It turns out that the Revolution have signed another 30-something French player of African descent with good foot skills, a shaved head, and a four-letter last name beginning with the letter D. What are the odds? The Revs’ newest player is Ousmane Dabo, a holding midfielder whose lengthy resume includes time in Italy’s Serie A and England’s Premier League. He looked solid today, controlling the ball and playing just in front of central defenders A.J. Soares and Ryan Cochrane, the latter in for an injured Franco Coria.

With the mid-season signings of Domi, Dabo, Benny Feilhaber, and Rajko Lekic, the Revolution is a team in transition. And given those signings, it appears the Revs are looking to add skill rather than speed and/or youth. This could lead to some good possession soccer after the players get to know each other, but it could also lead to a bunch of aging athletes sitting in hot tubs on game days. Last year’s team MVP Marko Perovic, another skilled player, is already injured, as is Domi. Revs fans must be eager to see Perovic, Shalrie Joseph, and all of the newcomers in action at the same time, but who knows if that will ever happen.

The Revs were decent today, which is to say infinitely better than they were against Chivas, though they couldn’t produce a goal. Fortunately, neither could Colorado, so New England managed to salvage at least a point at home. One player who was visibly displeased with this result, and with much else besides during the match, was Lekic. In the 9^th minute he got mugged and called for the foul. This set a tone of frustration for him (not that it appears he needs much provocation to be overcome by that emotion). He did have a good game, including an impressive play where he juggled the ball with a Colorado defender on his back. And he made some dangerous runs that unfortunately amounted to nothing. One of those runs came in stoppage time just before the end of the game, during one of the Revs’ best chances of the night. Sainey Nyassi received a good one-touch pass from Joseph through defenders near the top of the box. Nyassi streaked towards the right post while Lekic ran toward the left. For a brief moment Lekic was open. Nyassi hesitated and his cross was intercepted.

Lekic reacted as if Nyassi had just keyed his brand new Ferrari. He angrily and forcefully struck the left goal post with his foot. One thing’s for sure: the Dane’s schoolyard English is in working order. The camera caught him savagely jawing at Nyassi for the tardiness of his pass. When the final whistle blew a few minutes later, Lekic left the field shaking his head. He then voiced his concerns to Nichol on the sideline. I loved Lekic’s effort today, but I doubt if his ranting and complaining to the coach will ingratiate him with his new teammates.

Veteran strikers Omar Cummings and Conor Casey didn’t play for the Rapids, which was a disappointment. However, we got to see Andre Akpan instead. Akpan is a 23-year-old Harvard grad, an econ major who scored 47 goals for the Crimson and was named 2009 Ivy League player of the year. He came on as a Colorado substitute around the 30^th minute today and looked mighty impressive. He took a searing shot from about thirty yards out soon after coming in, made an impressive cut-back move on Kevin Alston a little later, and also quickly released a just-off-target shot after stealing a ball off a Revolution player’s chest trap. He’s dangerous and I’m intrigued.