Revolution at Chicago Fire, 9.25.11: MLS Supporters’ Shield Proposal, A Statistical Defense of Rajko Lekic, and More

The MLSsoccer.com recap article on New England’s 3-2 loss to the Chicago Fire on Sunday notes that the Revolution are “now all but mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.” A team that is 5-13-12 with four games to play should not simply be “all but mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.” It should be fighting to avoid relegation to a lower league. But of course teams aren’t relegated in U.S.-based sports leagues, and the MLS playoff format, in which 18 clubs vie for 10 spots, cheapens the very term “playoff team” and allows organizations as pathetic as these Revs to hold out hope well into September. That hope has mercifully been extinguished, and New England soccer fans can now turn their full attention to the EPL, La Liga, Serie A, etc.

While we’re on the subject of the MLS regular season: Is there a more meaningless hunk of sports hardware than the laughably named Supporters’ Shield, given each year to the MLS team with the best regular-season record? In most soccer leagues around the world, a team doesn’t just win a trophy for finishing the season atop the standings, it actually wins the league. Of course, most leagues don’t have playoffs.

I don’t propose doing away with the MLS playoffs, but league powers should truly reward the team that finishes the season with the most points. In my opinion, the Supporters’ Shield winner should be exempted from competing in all playoff games until the MLS finals. The Supporters’ Shield winner should be able sit and rest while all those many playoff teams battle it out for the right to play them in the championship game. That policy would keep teams like this year’s Galaxy, Sounders, and Real Salt Lake squads from resting their players in late September and October, and also keep fans everywhere interested in games involving teams that have already clinched playoff spots. It would also, of course, reward a team for performing consistently well all year long. As the playoff structure exists now, there’s little to be gained from winning the Supporters’ Shield; just ask last year’s Galaxy team, who finished atop the league but who lost to FC Dallas in the semi-finals. Of course, the Colorado Rapids barely slipped into the playoffs with 46 points (13 behind the Galaxy) and yet won the entire league.

But let’s move on to the Revolution match against Chicago, a rare 4:00 pm Sunday game and a rare second consecutive game in which the Revolution won the battle of possession. Of course, New England lost their last two matches (the first, you’ll remember, was against Portland) by a combined score of 6-2. That’s evidence that possession in itself is meaningless unless a team also plays good defense, creates chances to score, and capitalizes on those chances.

Speaking of possession, in another post, way back in July, I suggested that when Rajko Lekic is in the game, the Revolution are in effect always playing a man down. After all, he is almost always alone up top, and rarely is he involved in buildups or in trying to press the other team and regain possession when the other team has the ball. Since Lekic is injured and didn’t play against the Fire on Sunday, and since he was out for the second half of the Portland game (when the Revolution began to control the run of play), I thought I’d do a little digging to test out my hypothesis. If Lekic is in the game for the Revolution, what happens to the team’s time-of-possession numbers?

I don’t generally spend a lot of my free time poring over sports statistics, but I spent many hours yesterday gathering time-of-possession numbers, goals-scored and goals-conceded stats, etc., and placing that information on a spreadsheet. I’ve listed the most interesting statistics below. They apply to the 30 regular-season games the Revolution have played so far this year. I wouldn’t swear in a court of law that they’re 100% accurate, but then again I’m reasonably confident they are. I was surprised by what I found.

·      Goals scored per 90 minutes of play for Lekic: .31. The number is .20 if you take away his two penalty-kick goals. Those aren’t great numbers for a relatively well-paid striker, but read on.

·      Revs’ time-of-possession average for games in which Lekic did not play: 45%.

·      Revs’ time-of-possession average for games in which Lekic did play: 43%. So, I was right about the Revs holding the ball more without Lekic in the game, but then again the number went down by only 2%.

·      When the Revs win, their average time-of-possession percentage is: 43%.

·      When the Revs tie, their average time-of-possession percentage is: 42%.

·      When the Revs lose, their average time-of-possession percentage is: 45%. So, the Revs hold the ball more consistently when they lose than when they win, though again the numbers are close. (Their overall possession percentage per game for the season so far is 44%.)

·      Revs’ record, and winning percentage, without Lekic playing: 1-4-4, .259. (Note: When factoring the winning percentage, I counted a tie as 1/3 of a win, since a team is awarded one point for a tie and three points for a win.)

·      Revs’ record, and winning percentage, with Lekic playing: 4-9-8, .317. So, when Lekic plays (and he’s never been on the field for less than 45 minutes in any game in which he’s played this year), the Revs have a .058 better winning percentage than when he’s out of the lineup. (The Revs’ overall winning percentage this year so far is .300.)

·      The bottom line: Lekic may gripe and moan and jaw from time to time, even to his own teammates, but the numbers mostly back up his talk.

To return to the Chicago game on Sunday: The final 3-2 score line must strike the 5,000 or so people in the world who watched the game from beginning to end as bizarre. I know it does me. Chicago led 3-0 in this game from the 30^th minute to the 90^th. They got their first goal early, off an unforced giveaway by Benny Feilhaber in the midfield circle that led to a breakaway by Chicago and, ultimately, a penalty-kick goal for them. I argued last week about the importance of a good defense to a winning soccer team, but Feilhaber’s bad pass in the 4^th minute was a great example of how careless giveaways at midfield frequently lead to goals for the opposition.

Less than five minutes after Feilhaber’s gaffe, Shalrie Joseph couldn’t get control of a ball at midfield, and that too led to a quick Chicago counter. Speedy forward Dominic Oduro beat center backs Darrius Barnes and Franco Coria for Chicago’s second goal. The Fire’s third goal was—and you don’t hear this very often—the result of a lazy play by Matt Reis, who came way off his line and tried to clear an Oduro through ball. Reis kicked the ball completely without conviction, and Patrick Nyarko calmly blocked the kick with the bottom of his right cleat and then side-footed a shot into the open net.

The Revolution came on frustratingly late in this game. Kevin Alston, for instance, made a good attacking run and shot in the 75^th minute. Had that shot gone in, the Revs might have picked up a point. A tie would have seemed an impossible dream as late as the 89^th minute, but in the 90^th, Alston sailed a long cross into the box from the right wing. Chicago keeper Sean Johnson tried to catch the ball, but Milton Caraglio got in his way and the ball slipped out of Johnson’s hands and to the feet of Ryan Guy. Guy took an awkward shot with the outside of his foot, or maybe even his shin, but the ball sailed over and between two Chicago defenders and into the net. The Revs were down 3-1 with only 2 minutes of stoppage time left. It seemed like the archetypal useless goal.

But then New England scored again almost immediately, and there was nothing awkward about this one. Diego Fagundez, who came on in the 71^st minute, showed good skill by receiving a throw-in and using the inside of his right heel to flick a ball back to Caraglio, who then passed the ball squarely across the box to Guy. Guy beat the keeper with a good low shot to the near post.

After that, the Revs had only seconds left to tie. Shockingly, they might have pulled it off had Feilhaber’s cross from the left wing not sailed frustratingly out of reach of a sprinting Caraglio.

So while the Revs came on too late, at least they came on. I’d far rather watch that kind of effort than the kind the Revolution put forth relatively recently against the likes of Philadelphia, New York, and Houston—games in which they collapsed after promising starts. At the end of this one, the Fire wanted to get off the field and the Revolution wanted to keep playing. In this lost season, that’s at least mildly gratifying.