U.S. Men’s National Team v. Portugal, Manaus, Brazil, 6.22.14

Portugal dominated the first ten minutes of this match, scoring early after a botched clearance from U.S. center back Geoff Cameron. After that, though, it became increasingly clear that Portugal was committing players forward at the expense of its defense. When the U.S. did gain possession, Portugal looked vulnerable, leaving open vast swaths of grass for U.S. attackers to run on to. And the U.S.—a team many expected to bunker down—took full advantage, repeatedly sending fullbacks forward.

The U.S.’s aggressive tactical approach against Portugal was just one of the many surprises of this entertaining World Cup, a tournament that has Costa Rica on the verge of winning a group that contains three previous World Cup champions. Certainly no one expected that. (One Vegas sports book I checked a few weeks ago had Costa Rica as a 1000-1 shot to win the tournament.) It’s early, but nonetheless there’s a feeling that this might be the World Cup in which a dark horse—a true dark horse, not Belgium—might be the last team standing, and that that team might even emerge from the frequently dismissed CONCACAF federation. As I type this, not only has Costa Rica qualified for the round of 16, but Mexico has as well.

The U.S. team has also surprised many, and after the 2-2 draw with Portugal has a good shot of making the round of 16. Some individual U.S. players have also turned in notably unexpected performances. Jermaine Jones, for example, has long been considered the epitome of a talented but frustratingly inconsistent and undisciplined player. And yet, in the U.S.’s first two impressive 2014 World Cup showings, Jones has been the team’s most consistently effective player. And he’s only drawn a single yellow card in those two hectic contests.

Michael Bradley, by contrast, had been a pillar of consistency throughout World Cup qualifying, a universally respected player that commentators and fans climb all over each other to praise. But he played poorly in the U.S.’s opening victory against Ghana, and his performance against Portugal was defined not by redemption, but by two agonizing miscues. He failed to convert an uncontested shot from six yards out in the 55^th minute, and late in stoppage time he got run off the ball in midfield, sparking the break that led to Portugal’s tying goal.

In the months before this World Cup, many commentators insisted that if the U.S. was to emerge from Group G, it would do so because of the stellar play of Bradley, not Jones or anyone else. It might be closer to the mark to say that the U.S. has enjoyed success so far in spite of Bradley’s play. But this particular surprise actually reflects the progression of a U.S. program that now has a relatively deep talent pool and no longer needs to rely on a single player to succeed in big games against quality opponents. Some of the credit for this progression must go to current coach Jurgen Klinsmann. Many of us have criticized his public treatment of some of his players and his final roster selection, but his won-loss record so far is impressive and his team’s confident, modern and attacking style of play is often exciting.

Some of the credit must also go to Major League Soccer, which was founded less than 20 years ago and has helped develop not only Bradley, but Clint Dempsey and Tim Howard and so many of the players on the current U.S. roster. (And a few on the current Costa Rica roster, too.) The U.S.’s critical second goal against Portugal began with the German-American Jones, but then went through DeAndre Yedlin, Bradley, Graham Zusi, and Dempsey—all current MLS players who also began their careers in that league.

It will be fascinating to see how those MLS players and the rest of the U.S. team fare against the more accomplished German players on Thursday. Because while last night’s game was impressive—and I do think reflected ongoing positive changes in the U.S. program—it must be noted that Portugal was without four starters due to injuries and a suspension. And Ronaldo, who has tendinitis in his left knee, was clearly not at his best and fittest; in the 34^th minute he was already grabbing his knees in the humid conditions. German players are by contrast healthy and not serving suspensions. So Klinsmann may tell his team to shelve the overlapping runs and attacking style in favor of sitting back and looking to counter, as so many outclassed U.S. teams have done in the past. But I wouldn’t bet on it.